Why retail theft is soaring: inflation, the economy – and opportunity

Retailers large and small say they’re struggling to contain an escalation in store crimes — petty shoplifting to organized sprees of large-scale theft that clear entire shelves of products.

Target last week said it was bracing to lose half a billion dollars this year because of rising theft. Nordstrom, Whole Foods and some other big chains said they were abandoning San Francisco because of changing economic conditions or employee safety. Many other retailers have blamed crime for closing stores.

It’s not clear that crime is growing significantly more serious. But as economic fears grow amid inflation and rising borrowing costs, shoplifting often comes with the territory, industry watchers say.

Need and opportunity become forceful catalysts for driving up incidents of retail crime, experts said.

“A community might be struggling with heavy job losses and people can’t easily find another job. Now they can’t afford basic necessities,” said Read Hayes, criminologist at the University of Florida and director of the Loss Prevention Research Council, which has members including retailers such as Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Gap.

He described two types of store theft plaguing retailers currently.

“There is a trend of people who may have never stolen before, they are unsophisticated in how they steal. They’re taking necessities like bread and meat. We are seeing some of that,” he said.

The bigger bucket, however, is crime of opportunity. “This is organized retail crime. It’s an opportunistic crew stealing specific items from a specific place or one item from many places to resell them,” said Hayes. The stolen goods are most often sold online or to neighborhood mom and pop shops or at street fairs, for example.

Americans are hurting

Among the triggers for shoplifters is inflation. Although inflation is cooling — slowly — US prices are still on the rise, even after a two-year slog of consumers enduring painfully high prices on everything they need to sustain themselves and their families.

Economic distress is amplified on budget-strapped consumers during inflationary periods, said Burt Flickinger, retail expert and managing director of retail consultancy Strategic Resource Group.

“Millions of Americans can’t afford to fully buy their groceries or a full tank of gas, pay for public transportation, their home bills or pay their credit card debt,” he said.

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According to a recent Gallup poll, three in five Americans, or 61%, are suffering financial hardship because of rising prices. Among them, lower-income households reported feeling the greatest strain versus higher income brackets.